// NFL · Week 6 · Sunday 18 October 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction
Kick-off 1:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Chance
- 63%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Our pick, Pittsburgh Steelers, won ✓.
Our pre-game preview
Pittsburgh Steelers are our pick on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6. The model gives them a 63% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
Pittsburgh Steelers have the higher team rating (1533 to 1433), built from results and winning margins.
Quarterbacks: we expect Aaron Rodgers to start for Pittsburgh Steelers (283 career starts); we expect Jalon Daniels to start for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with only 2 career starts. We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: Pittsburgh Steelers are 6–2 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3–5.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Steelers beat the Buccaneers 26–19 on the road. Aaron Rodgers completed 33 of 49 passes for 253 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, and DK Metcalf caught 11 passes for 93 yards. For the Buccaneers, Jalon Daniels completed 22 of 43 passes for 164 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions.
What the model got right
The model gave the Steelers a 63% chance on the road, mainly because of their higher team rating (1533 to 1433), and they won by 7. Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Aaron Rodgers for the Steelers and Jalon Daniels for the Buccaneers.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. The Buccaneers kept it to a one-score game, so it was never comfortable.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 63%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 18 OctHouston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX 57%Orange✕ 34–31
- Sun, 18 OctNew York Jets @ New England Patriots NE 81%Green✓ 19–26
- Sun, 18 OctBaltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns BAL 53%Red✕ 10–13
- Sun, 18 OctNew Orleans Saints @ New York Giants NYG 61%Orange✕ 34–27
- Sun, 18 OctChicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons ATL 55%Orange✕ 31–23
- Sun, 18 OctCarolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles CAR 54%Red✓ 25–14
- Sun, 18 OctTennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts IND 76%Green✕ 26–20
- Sun, 18 OctArizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams LA 79%Green✕ 18–16
- Sun, 18 OctBuffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders BUF 68%Green✓ 33–30
- Sun, 18 OctLos Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs KC 78%Green✓ 6–22
- Sun, 18 OctDallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers GB 65%Orange✓ 13–23
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.