// NFL · Week 6 · Sunday 18 October 2026
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons prediction
Kick-off 1:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Atlanta Falcons
- Chance
- 55%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Chicago Bears 31 – 23 Atlanta Falcons. Our pick, Atlanta Falcons, lost ✕.
Our pre-game preview
Atlanta Falcons are our pick at home against the Chicago Bears in Week 6. The model gives them a 55% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
Chicago Bears have the higher team rating (1541 to 1474), but home field push the pick to Atlanta Falcons.
Quarterbacks: we expect Tyson Bagent to start for Chicago Bears, with only 5 career starts; we expect Michael Penix Jr. to start for Atlanta Falcons, though he hasn't been their regular starter this season. We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: Chicago Bears are 6–2 and Atlanta Falcons are 3–5.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Bears beat the Falcons 31–23 on the road. Caleb Williams completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards with 1 touchdown, and Luther Burden III caught 8 passes for 95 yards. For the Falcons, Michael Penix Jr. completed 19 of 33 passes for 225 yards with 3 touchdowns.
What the model got right
Michael Penix Jr. started for the Falcons, as the preview expected. Our team rating did have the Bears as the stronger side (1541 to 1474), and they won.
What didn't work
The model made the Falcons a slight favourite at 55%, and that was wrong: the Bears won by 8. The preview assumed Tyson Bagent would start for the Bears, but Caleb Williams started instead. The Bears out-gained the Falcons 368 yards to 257.
Why
The preview was built around the wrong starting quarterback, and in the NFL that changes a lot. Even at 55%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 18 OctHouston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX 57%Orange✕ 34–31
- Sun, 18 OctPittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers PIT 63%Orange✓ 26–19
- Sun, 18 OctNew York Jets @ New England Patriots NE 81%Green✓ 19–26
- Sun, 18 OctBaltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns BAL 53%Red✕ 10–13
- Sun, 18 OctNew Orleans Saints @ New York Giants NYG 61%Orange✕ 34–27
- Sun, 18 OctCarolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles CAR 54%Red✓ 25–14
- Sun, 18 OctTennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts IND 76%Green✕ 26–20
- Sun, 18 OctArizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams LA 79%Green✕ 18–16
- Sun, 18 OctBuffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders BUF 68%Green✓ 33–30
- Sun, 18 OctLos Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs KC 78%Green✓ 6–22
- Sun, 18 OctDallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers GB 65%Orange✓ 13–23
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.