// NFL · Week 6 · Sunday 18 October 2026
New York Jets vs New England Patriots prediction
Kick-off 1:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- New England Patriots
- Chance
- 81%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: New York Jets 19 – 26 New England Patriots. Our pick, New England Patriots, won ✓.
Our pre-game preview
New England Patriots are our pick at home against the New York Jets in Week 6. The model gives them a 81% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
New England Patriots have the higher team rating (1628 to 1382), built from results and winning margins, and they also have home field.
Quarterbacks: we expect Geno Smith to start for New York Jets (104 career starts); we expect Drake Maye to start for New England Patriots (37 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: New York Jets are 2–6 and New England Patriots are 5–3.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Patriots beat the Jets 26–19 at home. Drake Maye completed 18 of 32 passes for 235 yards with 3 touchdowns, and DeMario Douglas caught 7 passes for 86 yards and 1 touchdown. For the Jets, Geno Smith completed 20 of 30 passes for 252 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.
What the model got right
The model gave the Patriots an 81% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team rating (1628 to 1382), plus home field, and they won by 7. Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Geno Smith for the Jets and Drake Maye for the Patriots.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. The Jets kept it to a one-score game, so it was never comfortable.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 81%, about 2 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 18 OctHouston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX 57%Orange✕ 34–31
- Sun, 18 OctPittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers PIT 63%Orange✓ 26–19
- Sun, 18 OctBaltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns BAL 53%Red✕ 10–13
- Sun, 18 OctNew Orleans Saints @ New York Giants NYG 61%Orange✕ 34–27
- Sun, 18 OctChicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons ATL 55%Orange✕ 31–23
- Sun, 18 OctCarolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles CAR 54%Red✓ 25–14
- Sun, 18 OctTennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts IND 76%Green✕ 26–20
- Sun, 18 OctArizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams LA 79%Green✕ 18–16
- Sun, 18 OctBuffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders BUF 68%Green✓ 33–30
- Sun, 18 OctLos Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs KC 78%Green✓ 6–22
- Sun, 18 OctDallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers GB 65%Orange✓ 13–23
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.