// NFL · Week 6 · Sunday 18 October 2026
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction
Kick-off 9:30am ET ·
- Pick
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Chance
- 57%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Houston Texans 34 – 31 Jacksonville Jaguars. Our pick, Jacksonville Jaguars, lost ✕.
Our pre-game preview
Jacksonville Jaguars are our pick against the Houston Texans at a neutral venue in Week 6. The model gives them a 57% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
Jacksonville Jaguars have the higher team rating (1650 to 1522), built from results and winning margins.
Quarterbacks: we expect C.J. Stroud to start for Houston Texans (56 career starts); we expect Trevor Lawrence to start for Jacksonville Jaguars (85 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: Houston Texans are 2–5 and Jacksonville Jaguars are 6–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Texans beat the Jaguars 34–31 at a neutral venue. C.J. Stroud completed 24 of 34 passes for 312 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, and Jaylin Noel caught 4 passes for 107 yards and 1 touchdown. For the Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence completed 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception.
What the model got right
Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: C.J. Stroud for the Texans and Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars. Beyond that, not much went the model's way on the day.
What didn't work
The model made the Jaguars a slight favourite at 57%, and that was wrong: the Texans won by 3. Our team rating had the Jaguars ahead (1650 to 1522), and that didn't hold up.
Why
The pick rested mostly on our team rating, which is built from past results and can't see how a single game will go. Even at 57%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 18 OctPittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers PIT 63%Orange✓ 26–19
- Sun, 18 OctNew York Jets @ New England Patriots NE 81%Green✓ 19–26
- Sun, 18 OctBaltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns BAL 53%Red✕ 10–13
- Sun, 18 OctNew Orleans Saints @ New York Giants NYG 61%Orange✕ 34–27
- Sun, 18 OctChicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons ATL 55%Orange✕ 31–23
- Sun, 18 OctCarolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles CAR 54%Red✓ 25–14
- Sun, 18 OctTennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts IND 76%Green✕ 26–20
- Sun, 18 OctArizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams LA 79%Green✕ 18–16
- Sun, 18 OctBuffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders BUF 68%Green✓ 33–30
- Sun, 18 OctLos Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs KC 78%Green✓ 6–22
- Sun, 18 OctDallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers GB 65%Orange✓ 13–23
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.