// NFL · Week 6 · Sunday 18 October 2026
Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers prediction
Kick-off 8:20pm ET ·
- Pick
- Green Bay Packers
- Chance
- 65%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Dallas Cowboys 13 – 23 Green Bay Packers. Our pick, Green Bay Packers, won ✓.
Our pre-game preview
Green Bay Packers are our pick at home against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6. The model gives them a 65% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
Green Bay Packers have the higher team rating (1520 to 1438), built from results and winning margins, and they also have home field.
Quarterbacks: we expect Dak Prescott to start for Dallas Cowboys (150 career starts); we expect Jordan Love to start for Green Bay Packers (57 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: Dallas Cowboys are 3–5 and Green Bay Packers are 5–3.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Packers beat the Cowboys 23–13 at home. Jordan Love completed 23 of 41 passes for 276 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, and Matthew Golden caught 6 passes for 104 yards and 1 touchdown. For the Cowboys, Dak Prescott completed 34 of 54 passes for 258 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions.
What the model got right
The model gave the Packers a 65% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team rating (1520 to 1438), plus home field, and they won by 10. Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Dak Prescott for the Cowboys and Jordan Love for the Packers.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. The Cowboys never got close enough to make it a contest.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 65%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 18 OctHouston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX 57%Orange✕ 34–31
- Sun, 18 OctPittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers PIT 63%Orange✓ 26–19
- Sun, 18 OctNew York Jets @ New England Patriots NE 81%Green✓ 19–26
- Sun, 18 OctBaltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns BAL 53%Red✕ 10–13
- Sun, 18 OctNew Orleans Saints @ New York Giants NYG 61%Orange✕ 34–27
- Sun, 18 OctChicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons ATL 55%Orange✕ 31–23
- Sun, 18 OctCarolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles CAR 54%Red✓ 25–14
- Sun, 18 OctTennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts IND 76%Green✕ 26–20
- Sun, 18 OctArizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams LA 79%Green✕ 18–16
- Sun, 18 OctBuffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders BUF 68%Green✓ 33–30
- Sun, 18 OctLos Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs KC 78%Green✓ 6–22
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.