// NFL · Week 6 · Sunday 18 October 2026
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction
Kick-off 4:25pm ET ·
- Pick
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Chance
- 78%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 6 – 22 Kansas City Chiefs. Our pick, Kansas City Chiefs, won ✓.
Our pre-game preview
Kansas City Chiefs are our pick at home against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6. The model gives them a 78% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
Kansas City Chiefs have the higher team rating (1575 to 1407), built from results and winning margins, and they also have home field.
Schedule: Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a bye.
Quarterbacks: we expect Justin Herbert to start for Los Angeles Chargers (103 career starts); we expect Patrick Mahomes to start for Kansas City Chiefs (151 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: Los Angeles Chargers are 0–7 and Kansas City Chiefs are 5–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Chiefs beat the Chargers 22–6 at home. Patrick Mahomes completed 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards with 1 interception, and Kenneth Walker III ran for 128 yards on 19 carries and scored twice. For the Chargers, Justin Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards with 1 interception.
What the model got right
The model gave the Chiefs a 78% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team rating (1575 to 1407), plus home field, and they won by 16. Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Justin Herbert for the Chargers and Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. The Chargers never got close enough to make it a contest.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 78%, about 2 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 18 OctHouston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX 57%Orange✕ 34–31
- Sun, 18 OctPittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers PIT 63%Orange✓ 26–19
- Sun, 18 OctNew York Jets @ New England Patriots NE 81%Green✓ 19–26
- Sun, 18 OctBaltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns BAL 53%Red✕ 10–13
- Sun, 18 OctNew Orleans Saints @ New York Giants NYG 61%Orange✕ 34–27
- Sun, 18 OctChicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons ATL 55%Orange✕ 31–23
- Sun, 18 OctCarolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles CAR 54%Red✓ 25–14
- Sun, 18 OctTennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts IND 76%Green✕ 26–20
- Sun, 18 OctArizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams LA 79%Green✕ 18–16
- Sun, 18 OctBuffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders BUF 68%Green✓ 33–30
- Sun, 18 OctDallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers GB 65%Orange✓ 13–23
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.