// NFL · Week 6 · Sunday 18 October 2026
Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction
Kick-off 4:25pm ET ·
- Pick
- Buffalo Bills
- Chance
- 68%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Buffalo Bills 33 – 30 Las Vegas Raiders. Our pick, Buffalo Bills, won ✓.
Our pre-game preview
Buffalo Bills are our pick on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6. The model gives them a 68% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
Buffalo Bills have the higher team rating (1656 to 1428), built from results and winning margins.
Quarterbacks: we expect Josh Allen to start for Buffalo Bills (144 career starts); we expect Kirk Cousins to start for Las Vegas Raiders (176 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: Buffalo Bills are 6–1 and Las Vegas Raiders are 4–4.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Bills beat the Raiders 33–30 on the road. Josh Allen completed 23 of 33 passes for 255 yards with 2 touchdowns, and James Cook III ran for 95 yards on 22 carries and scored once. For the Raiders, Kirk Cousins completed 23 of 41 passes for 313 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.
What the model got right
The model gave the Bills a 68% chance on the road, mainly because of their higher team rating (1656 to 1428), and they won by 3. Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Josh Allen for the Bills and Kirk Cousins for the Raiders.
What didn't work
The pick came through, but only just: a 3-point game is closer than a 68% chance suggests. The Raiders kept it to a one-score game, so it was never comfortable.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 68%, about 3 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 18 OctHouston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX 57%Orange✕ 34–31
- Sun, 18 OctPittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers PIT 63%Orange✓ 26–19
- Sun, 18 OctNew York Jets @ New England Patriots NE 81%Green✓ 19–26
- Sun, 18 OctBaltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns BAL 53%Red✕ 10–13
- Sun, 18 OctNew Orleans Saints @ New York Giants NYG 61%Orange✕ 34–27
- Sun, 18 OctChicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons ATL 55%Orange✕ 31–23
- Sun, 18 OctCarolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles CAR 54%Red✓ 25–14
- Sun, 18 OctTennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts IND 76%Green✕ 26–20
- Sun, 18 OctArizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams LA 79%Green✕ 18–16
- Sun, 18 OctLos Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs KC 78%Green✓ 6–22
- Sun, 18 OctDallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers GB 65%Orange✓ 13–23
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.