// NFL · model record · 42 finished games
NFL prediction record
Every NFL prediction stays on this page once the game finishes, right or wrong. So far this season the model has named the winner in 25 of 42 games (60%). Its own figures said to expect about 27.8 correct, so it is running 2.8 behind what it forecast.
Calibration: when we said 70%, did it happen 70% of the time?
Each dot groups games by the chance the model gave its predicted winner. A dot on the dashed diagonal means those chances came true exactly as often as stated; bigger dots hold more games. The accuracy score (average squared error, lower is better) is 0.217, against 0.250 for a coin flip.
| Model chance | Games | Average prediction | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 8 | 53% | 25% |
| 55–60% | 6 | 57% | 50% |
| 60–65% | 5 | 63% | 60% |
| 65–70% | 7 | 67% | 71% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 74% | 60% |
| 80–100% | 6 | 82% | 100% |
Early-season groups are small, so single results move the dots a lot. The chart fills in as the season goes on.
By confidence level
- Green High confidence: 17 of 23 correct (74%)
- Orange Medium confidence: 6 of 11 correct (55%)
- Red Low confidence: 2 of 8 correct (25%)
Latest finished games
- Thu, 5 NovJacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens JAX 70%Green✓ 33–10
- Mon, 2 NovChicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks SEA 61%Orange✕ 34–17
- Sun, 1 NovPhiladelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders WAS 69%Green✓ 10–27
- Sun, 1 NovKansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos DEN 65%Green✓ 24–28
- Sun, 1 NovNew England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins NE 71%Green✓ 24–19
- Sun, 1 NovLos Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams LA 73%Green✓ 9–24
- Sun, 1 NovTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals CIN 83%Green✓ 36–43
- Sun, 1 NovArizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys DAL 67%Green✕ 33–30
- Sun, 1 NovAtlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB 55%Red✓ 0–16
- Sun, 1 NovBaltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills BUF 81%Green✓ 10–36
- Sun, 1 NovCleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers PIT 68%Green✓ 6–27
- Sun, 1 NovIndianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX 82%Green✓ 7–42
- Sun, 1 NovLas Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets NYJ 52%Red✕ 38–33
- Sun, 1 NovMinnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions MIN 53%Red✕ 15–19
- Thu, 29 OctCarolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers GB 66%Green✓ 19–27
- Mon, 26 OctDallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles PHI 52%Red✕ 38–21
- Sun, 25 OctKansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks SEA 57%Orange✓ 3–20
- Sun, 25 OctLos Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders LA 59%Orange✓ 35–21
- Sun, 25 OctGreen Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions DET 62%Orange✓ 17–20
- Sun, 25 OctDenver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals DEN 71%Green✓ 30–16
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice.