// NBA · Friday 23 October 2026
Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers prediction
Start 7:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Indiana Pacers
- Chance
- 60%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Dallas Mavericks 121 – 105 Indiana Pacers. Our pick, Indiana Pacers, lost ✕.
Recent results
- Dallas Mavericks: 0 wins from the last 1, average margin −18.0 points (L 110–128 @ HOU).
- Indiana Pacers: 1 win from the last 1, average margin +3.0 points (W 123–120 @ NO).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Indiana Pacers are our pick at home against the Dallas Mavericks. The model gives them a 60% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
On the rosters we expect, Indiana Pacers rate as the stronger team (90.9 to 82.7 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Dallas Mavericks have been losing by 8.5 points a game, while Indiana Pacers have been losing by 4.8 points a game.
Injuries: Dallas Mavericks will be without Santi Aldama (30 min a game), Caleb Martin (21 min a game) and Dereck Lively II (16 min a game) and Indiana Pacers will be without Ben Sheppard (21 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Dallas Mavericks are 5–4 and Indiana Pacers are 3–7.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Mavericks beat the Pacers 121–105 on the road. Kyrie Irving led them with 24 points, making 5 of 10 threes, and P.J. Washington added 20. For the Pacers, Pascal Siakam had 23 points.
What the model got right
Santi Aldama, Dereck Lively II and Caleb Martin for the Mavericks, and Ben Sheppard for the Pacers, all missed the game, as the preview expected. Beyond that, not much went the model's way on the night.
What didn't work
The model made the Pacers a slight favourite at 60%, and that was wrong: the Mavericks won by 16. The Mavericks made 14 of 34 from three; the Pacers made 7 of 32. Our team-strength rating had the Pacers ahead (90.9 to 82.7), and that didn't hold up.
Why
The pick rested mostly on our team-strength rating, which has no way to see a night like this one coming. Even at 60%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Fri, 23 OctChicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks MIL 53%Red✕ 132–125
- Fri, 23 OctMinnesota Timberwolves @ Orlando Magic ORL 51%Red✕ 115–93
- Fri, 23 OctToronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards TOR 75%Green✓ 112–102
- Fri, 23 OctAtlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets ATL 54%Red✓ 128–81
- Fri, 23 OctNew York Knicks @ Boston Celtics NY 56%Orange✕ 103–107
- Fri, 23 OctDetroit Pistons @ Miami Heat DET 51%Red✓ 128–111
- Fri, 23 OctNew Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz UTAH 54%Red✓ 119–120
- Fri, 23 OctHouston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs SA 66%Green✕ 114–110
- Fri, 23 OctPortland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings POR 73%Green✓ 128–120
- Fri, 23 OctLA Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers LAL 74%Green✓ 117–125
- Fri, 23 OctMemphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors GS 60%Orange✕ 111–108
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.