// NFL · Week 7 · Sunday 25 October 2026
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons prediction
Kick-off 1:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- San Francisco 49ers
- Chance
- 69%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: San Francisco 49ers 20 – 29 Atlanta Falcons. Our pick, San Francisco 49ers, lost ✕.
Our pre-game preview
San Francisco 49ers are our pick on the road against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7. The model gives them a 69% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
San Francisco 49ers have the higher team rating (1683 to 1451), built from results and winning margins.
Quarterbacks: we expect Brock Purdy to start for San Francisco 49ers (59 career starts); we expect Michael Penix Jr. to start for Atlanta Falcons (16 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: San Francisco 49ers are 6–1 and Atlanta Falcons are 3–5.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Falcons beat the 49ers 29–20 at home. Michael Penix Jr. completed 25 of 34 passes for 213 yards with 3 touchdowns. For the 49ers, Brock Purdy completed 27 of 40 passes for 288 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions.
What the model got right
Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Brock Purdy for the 49ers and Michael Penix Jr. for the Falcons. Beyond that, not much went the model's way on the day.
What didn't work
The model made the 49ers the favourite at 68%, and that was wrong: the Falcons won by 9. The 49ers out-gained the Falcons 400 yards to 295 and still lost. Our team rating had the 49ers ahead (1683 to 1451), and that didn't hold up.
Why
The pick rested mostly on our team rating, which is built from past results and can't see how a single game will go. Even at 68%, about 3 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 25 OctPittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints PIT 71%Green✓ 16–10
- Sun, 25 OctCleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans CLE 60%Orange✓ 27–24
- Sun, 25 OctCincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens BAL 51%Red✕ 35–13
- Sun, 25 OctNew York Giants @ Houston Texans HOU 74%Green✕ 27–21
- Sun, 25 OctMiami Dolphins @ New York Jets NYJ 56%Orange✕ 28–25
- Sun, 25 OctIndianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings MIN 83%Green✓ 10–16
- Sun, 25 OctTampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers CAR 77%Green✕ 43–13
- Sun, 25 OctDenver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals DEN 71%Green✓ 30–16
- Sun, 25 OctLos Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders LA 59%Orange✓ 35–21
- Sun, 25 OctGreen Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions DET 62%Orange✓ 17–20
- Sun, 25 OctKansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks SEA 57%Orange✓ 3–20
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.