// NFL · Week 7 · Sunday 25 October 2026
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets prediction
Kick-off 1:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- New York Jets
- Chance
- 56%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Miami Dolphins 28 – 25 New York Jets. Our pick, New York Jets, lost ✕.
Our pre-game preview
New York Jets are our pick at home against the Miami Dolphins in Week 7. The model gives them a 56% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
New York Jets have the higher team rating (1374 to 1354), built from results and winning margins, and they also have home field.
Schedule: Miami Dolphins are coming off a bye.
Quarterbacks: we expect Malik Willis to start for Miami Dolphins (11 career starts); we expect Geno Smith to start for New York Jets (105 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: Miami Dolphins are 1–6 and New York Jets are 2–6.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Dolphins beat the Jets 28–25 on the road. Malik Willis completed 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards with 2 touchdowns, and Ollie Gordon II ran for 103 yards on 25 carries and scored once. For the Jets, Geno Smith completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception.
What the model got right
Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Malik Willis for the Dolphins and Geno Smith for the Jets. Beyond that, not much went the model's way on the day.
What didn't work
The model made the Jets a slight favourite at 56%, and that was wrong: the Dolphins won by 3. Our team rating had the Jets ahead (1374 to 1354), and that didn't hold up.
Why
The pick rested mostly on our team rating, which is built from past results and can't see how a single game will go. Even at 56%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 25 OctPittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints PIT 71%Green✓ 16–10
- Sun, 25 OctCleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans CLE 60%Orange✓ 27–24
- Sun, 25 OctCincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens BAL 51%Red✕ 35–13
- Sun, 25 OctSan Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons SF 69%Green✕ 20–29
- Sun, 25 OctNew York Giants @ Houston Texans HOU 74%Green✕ 27–21
- Sun, 25 OctIndianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings MIN 83%Green✓ 10–16
- Sun, 25 OctTampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers CAR 77%Green✕ 43–13
- Sun, 25 OctDenver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals DEN 71%Green✓ 30–16
- Sun, 25 OctLos Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders LA 59%Orange✓ 35–21
- Sun, 25 OctGreen Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions DET 62%Orange✓ 17–20
- Sun, 25 OctKansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks SEA 57%Orange✓ 3–20
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.