// NFL · Week 7 · Sunday 25 October 2026
New York Giants vs Houston Texans prediction
Kick-off 1:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Houston Texans
- Chance
- 74%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: New York Giants 27 – 21 Houston Texans. Our pick, Houston Texans, lost ✕.
Our pre-game preview
Houston Texans are our pick at home against the New York Giants in Week 7. The model gives them a 74% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
Houston Texans have the higher team rating (1546 to 1435), built from results and winning margins, and they also have home field.
Quarterbacks: we expect Jameis Winston to start for New York Giants, though he hasn't been their regular starter this season; we expect C.J. Stroud to start for Houston Texans (57 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: New York Giants are 4–2–1 and Houston Texans are 2–5.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Giants beat the Texans 27–21 on the road. J.J. McCarthy completed 20 of 28 passes for 252 yards, and Cam Skattebo ran for 124 yards on 17 carries and scored once. For the Texans, C.J. Stroud completed 17 of 28 passes for 153 yards with 2 touchdowns.
What the model got right
C.J. Stroud started for the Texans, as the preview expected. Beyond that, not much went the model's way on the day.
What didn't work
The model made the Texans the favourite at 74%, and that was wrong: the Giants won by 6. The preview assumed Jameis Winston would start for the Giants, but J.J. McCarthy started instead. The Giants out-gained the Texans 420 yards to 237.
Why
The preview was built around the wrong starting quarterback, and in the NFL that changes a lot. Even at 74%, about 3 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 25 OctPittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints PIT 71%Green✓ 16–10
- Sun, 25 OctCleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans CLE 60%Orange✓ 27–24
- Sun, 25 OctCincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens BAL 51%Red✕ 35–13
- Sun, 25 OctSan Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons SF 69%Green✕ 20–29
- Sun, 25 OctMiami Dolphins @ New York Jets NYJ 56%Orange✕ 28–25
- Sun, 25 OctIndianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings MIN 83%Green✓ 10–16
- Sun, 25 OctTampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers CAR 77%Green✕ 43–13
- Sun, 25 OctDenver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals DEN 71%Green✓ 30–16
- Sun, 25 OctLos Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders LA 59%Orange✓ 35–21
- Sun, 25 OctGreen Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions DET 62%Orange✓ 17–20
- Sun, 25 OctKansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks SEA 57%Orange✓ 3–20
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.