// NBA · Wednesday 4 November 2026
Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets prediction
Start 9:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Denver Nuggets
- Chance
- 64%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Toronto Raptors 109 – 128 Denver Nuggets. Our pick, Denver Nuggets, won ✓.
Recent results
- Toronto Raptors: 2 wins from the last 5, average margin +0.2 points (W 125–118 @ LAC, L 125–131 @ LAL, L 114–121 v ORL, W 129–99 v ORL, L 94–117 @ MIN).
- Denver Nuggets: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin −0.4 points (L 110–118 v POR, W 127–120 @ PHX, W 104–91 @ NO, L 114–134 v GS, W 141–135 v NO).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Denver Nuggets are our pick at home against the Toronto Raptors. The model gives them a 64% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
On the rosters we expect, Denver Nuggets rate as the stronger team (97.8 to 90.2 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Toronto Raptors have been winning by 5.4 points a game, while Denver Nuggets have been winning by 0.4 points a game.
Injuries: Toronto Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard (26 min a game) and Denver Nuggets will be without Spencer Jones (20 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Toronto Raptors are 5–4 and Denver Nuggets are 5–3.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Nuggets beat the Raptors 128–109 at home. Nikola Jokic led them with 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists, and Bryce Hopkins added 18. For the Raptors, RJ Barrett had 22 points and 5 rebounds.
What the model got right
The model gave the Nuggets a 64% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team-strength rating (97.8 to 90.2), and they won by 19. Kawhi Leonard for the Raptors, and Spencer Jones for the Nuggets, both missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Recent form favoured the Raptors (the Nuggets had been winning by 0.4 points a game, the Raptors winning by 5.4), and that didn't carry over. RJ Barrett's 22 points for the Raptors weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team-strength rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 64%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 4 NovAtlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards ATL 55%Orange✓ 120–105
- Wed, 4 NovPhiladelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons DET 62%Super✕ 112–106
- Wed, 4 NovMilwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics BOS 77%Green✓ 102–109
- Wed, 4 NovCharlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets CHA 61%Orange✕ 104–114
- Wed, 4 NovChicago Bulls @ New York Knicks NY 83%Green✓ 105–135
- Wed, 4 NovUtah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans NO 73%Green✓ 113–120
- Wed, 4 NovCleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 59%Orange✓ 116–124
- Wed, 4 NovIndiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies MEM 74%Super✕ 107–103
- Wed, 4 NovMinnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets HOU 70%Green✕ 117–107
- Wed, 4 NovPortland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix Suns POR 55%Orange✓ 132–119
- Wed, 4 NovDallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs SA 84%Green✓ 111–112
- Wed, 4 NovLos Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings LAL 78%Green✓ 116–103
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.