// NBA · Wednesday 4 November 2026
Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics prediction
Start 7:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- Boston Celtics
- Chance
- 77%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Milwaukee Bucks 102 – 109 Boston Celtics. Our pick, Boston Celtics, won ✓.
Recent results
- Milwaukee Bucks: 1 win from the last 5, average margin −14.4 points (L 100–112 @ MIN, L 111–136 v CLE, L 100–132 v HOU, W 110–102 v IND, L 116–127 @ PHI).
- Boston Celtics: 4 wins from the last 5, average margin +9.0 points (L 93–109 @ HOU, W 108–97 @ ORL, W 125–111 v CHI, W 125–124 v BKN, W 134–99 v CHI).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Boston Celtics are our pick at home against the Milwaukee Bucks. The model gives them a 77% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
Milwaukee Bucks rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (88.6 to 80.9 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to Boston Celtics.
Recent form: Milwaukee Bucks have been losing by 12.2 points a game, while Boston Celtics have been winning by 5.5 points a game.
Injuries: Boston Celtics will be without Jayson Tatum (35 min a game) and Devin Carter (25 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Milwaukee Bucks are 1–8 and Boston Celtics are 7–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Celtics beat the Bucks 109–102 at home. Paul George led them with 25 points and 5 assists, making 5 of 9 threes, and Derrick White added 24. For the Bucks, Tyler Herro had 25 points and 5 rebounds.
What the model got right
The model gave the Celtics a 77% chance at home, mainly because of home court, even though the Bucks rated clearly stronger (88.6 to 80.9), and they won by 7. Recent form pointed the same way: the Celtics had been winning by 5.5 points a game, the Bucks losing by 12.2. Jayson Tatum and Devin Carter for the Celtics both missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Our rating had the Bucks clearly stronger on paper, and on the night that didn't decide it. Tyler Herro's 25 points for the Bucks weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, home court. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 77%, about 2 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 4 NovAtlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards ATL 55%Orange✓ 120–105
- Wed, 4 NovPhiladelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons DET 62%Super✕ 112–106
- Wed, 4 NovCharlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets CHA 61%Orange✕ 104–114
- Wed, 4 NovChicago Bulls @ New York Knicks NY 83%Green✓ 105–135
- Wed, 4 NovUtah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans NO 73%Green✓ 113–120
- Wed, 4 NovCleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 59%Orange✓ 116–124
- Wed, 4 NovIndiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies MEM 74%Super✕ 107–103
- Wed, 4 NovMinnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets HOU 70%Green✕ 117–107
- Wed, 4 NovPortland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix Suns POR 55%Orange✓ 132–119
- Wed, 4 NovToronto Raptors @ Denver Nuggets DEN 64%Orange✓ 109–128
- Wed, 4 NovDallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs SA 84%Green✓ 111–112
- Wed, 4 NovLos Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings LAL 78%Green✓ 116–103
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.