// NBA · Wednesday 4 November 2026
Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs prediction
Start 9:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- San Antonio Spurs
- Chance
- 84%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Dallas Mavericks 111 – 112 San Antonio Spurs. Our pick, San Antonio Spurs, won ✓.
Recent results
- Dallas Mavericks: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin +0.4 points (L 100–115 v SAC, W 116–111 v HOU, W 120–96 v OKC, W 113–109 @ MIA, L 106–122 v SA).
- San Antonio Spurs: 5 wins from the last 5, average margin +16.2 points (W 119–97 v UTAH, W 121–111 v MIN, W 117–111 @ UTAH, W 130–103 v SAC, W 122–106 @ DAL).
These teams have already met 1 time this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
San Antonio Spurs are our pick at home against the Dallas Mavericks. The model gives them a 84% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
On the rosters we expect, San Antonio Spurs rate as the stronger team (94.8 to 93.6 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Dallas Mavericks have been losing by 3.4 points a game, while San Antonio Spurs have been winning by 8.0 points a game.
Injuries: Dallas Mavericks will be without Santi Aldama (30 min a game), Max Christie (24 min a game) and Dereck Lively II (16 min a game) and San Antonio Spurs will be without Tobias Harris (31 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Dallas Mavericks are 5–4 and San Antonio Spurs are 8–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Spurs beat the Mavericks 112–111 at home. Victor Wembanyama led them with 52 points and 24 rebounds, and Dylan Harper added 21. For the Mavericks, Kyrie Irving had 29 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, making 5 of 14 threes.
What the model got right
The model gave the Spurs an 84% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team-strength rating (94.8 to 93.6), and they won by 1. Recent form pointed the same way: the Spurs had been winning by 8.0 points a game, the Mavericks losing by 3.4. Max Christie, Santi Aldama and Dereck Lively II for the Mavericks, and Tobias Harris for the Spurs, all missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
The pick came through, but only just: a 1-point game is closer than an 84% chance suggests. The Mavericks made more threes (14 to 5) and still lost.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team-strength rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 84%, about 2 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 4 NovAtlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards ATL 55%Orange✓ 120–105
- Wed, 4 NovPhiladelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons DET 62%Super✕ 112–106
- Wed, 4 NovMilwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics BOS 77%Green✓ 102–109
- Wed, 4 NovCharlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets CHA 61%Orange✕ 104–114
- Wed, 4 NovChicago Bulls @ New York Knicks NY 83%Green✓ 105–135
- Wed, 4 NovUtah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans NO 73%Green✓ 113–120
- Wed, 4 NovCleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 59%Orange✓ 116–124
- Wed, 4 NovIndiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies MEM 74%Super✕ 107–103
- Wed, 4 NovMinnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets HOU 70%Green✕ 117–107
- Wed, 4 NovPortland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix Suns POR 55%Orange✓ 132–119
- Wed, 4 NovToronto Raptors @ Denver Nuggets DEN 64%Orange✓ 109–128
- Wed, 4 NovLos Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings LAL 78%Green✓ 116–103
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.