// NBA · Wednesday 21 October 2026
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat prediction
Start 7:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- Miami Heat
- Chance
- 60%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Minnesota Timberwolves 131 – 106 Miami Heat. Our pick, Miami Heat, lost ✕.
Recent results
- Minnesota Timberwolves: no finished games yet this season.
- Miami Heat: no finished games yet this season.
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Miami Heat are our pick at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The model gives them a 60% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
On the rosters we expect, Miami Heat rate as the stronger team (100.3 to 93.0 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Minnesota Timberwolves have been losing by 4.3 points a game, while Miami Heat have been winning by 1.2 points a game.
Injuries: Minnesota Timberwolves will be without Donte DiVincenzo (27 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Minnesota Timberwolves are 7–3 and Miami Heat are 3–6.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Timberwolves beat the Heat 131–106 on the road. Anthony Edwards led them with 45 points and 10 rebounds, making 9 of 17 threes, and LaMelo Ball added 21. For the Heat, Giannis Antetokounmpo had 35 points and 6 rebounds.
What the model got right
Donte DiVincenzo missed the game for the Timberwolves, as the preview expected. Beyond that, not much went the model's way on the night.
What didn't work
The model made the Heat a slight favourite at 60%, and that was wrong: the Timberwolves won by 25. The Timberwolves made 21 of 50 from three; the Heat made 8 of 33. Our team-strength rating had the Heat ahead (100.3 to 93.0), and that didn't hold up.
Why
The pick rested mostly on our team-strength rating, which has no way to see a night like this one coming. Even at 60%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 21 OctMilwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards MIL 54%Red✕ 116–128
- Wed, 21 OctAtlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic ORL 55%Orange✕ 132–125
- Wed, 21 OctCharlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets CHA 68%Super✓ 110–103
- Wed, 21 OctChicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors TOR 75%Green✓ 92–135
- Wed, 21 OctIndiana Pacers @ New Orleans Pelicans NO 65%Orange✕ 123–120
- Wed, 21 OctUtah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies MEM 53%Red✓ 103–123
- Wed, 21 OctDallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets HOU 79%Green✓ 110–128
- Wed, 21 OctPhoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers POR 59%Orange✓ 83–124
- Wed, 21 OctGolden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers LAL 73%Super✓ 105–127
- Wed, 21 OctSacramento Kings @ LA Clippers LAC 70%Super✓ 96–121
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.