// NBA · Saturday 24 October 2026
San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks prediction
Start 8:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- San Antonio Spurs
- Chance
- 85%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: San Antonio Spurs 122 – 106 Dallas Mavericks. Our pick, San Antonio Spurs, won ✓.
Recent results
- San Antonio Spurs: 0 wins from the last 2, average margin −8.0 points (L 110–114 v HOU, L 104–116 v OKC).
- Dallas Mavericks: 1 win from the last 2, average margin −1.0 points (W 121–105 @ IND, L 110–128 @ HOU).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
San Antonio Spurs are our pick on the road against the Dallas Mavericks. The model gives them a 85% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
On the rosters we expect, San Antonio Spurs rate as the stronger team (91.9 to 73.6 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: San Antonio Spurs have been winning by 2.3 points a game, while Dallas Mavericks have been losing by 5.2 points a game.
Schedule: San Antonio Spurs are on the second night of a back-to-back and Dallas Mavericks are on the second night of a back-to-back, which the model takes into account.
Injuries: San Antonio Spurs will be without Tobias Harris (31 min a game) and Dallas Mavericks will be without Cooper Flagg (33 min a game), Santi Aldama (30 min a game), Caleb Martin (21 min a game) and Dereck Lively II (16 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: San Antonio Spurs are 8–2 and Dallas Mavericks are 5–4.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Spurs beat the Mavericks 122–106 on the road. Victor Wembanyama led them with 23 points and 7 rebounds, and Dylan Harper added 22. For the Mavericks, Sergio de Larrea had 21 points and 5 rebounds.
What the model got right
The model gave the Spurs an 85% chance on the road, mainly because of their higher team-strength rating (91.9 to 73.6), and they won by 16. Recent form pointed the same way: the Spurs had been winning by 2.3 points a game, the Mavericks losing by 5.2. Tobias Harris for the Spurs, and Cooper Flagg, Santi Aldama, Dereck Lively II and Caleb Martin for the Mavericks, all missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. Sergio de Larrea's 21 points for the Mavericks weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team-strength rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 85%, about 2 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Sat, 24 OctMiami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets MIA 54%Red✕ 110–115
- Sat, 24 OctBrooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 86%Super✓ 121–125
- Sat, 24 OctMilwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers PHI 78%Green✓ 116–127
- Sat, 24 OctWashington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls CHI 64%Super✕ 124–120
- Sat, 24 OctHouston Rockets @ Atlanta Hawks ATL 51%Red✕ 121–114
- Sat, 24 OctNew Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets DEN 77%Green✓ 135–141
- Sat, 24 OctGolden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns PHX 79%Green✓ 122–131
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.