// NBA · Friday 30 October 2026
Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat prediction
Start 8:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Miami Heat
- Chance
- 77%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Indiana Pacers 125 – 145 Miami Heat. Our pick, Miami Heat, won ✓.
Recent results
- Indiana Pacers: 2 wins from the last 5, average margin +0.2 points (L 109–114 v PHI, L 102–110 @ MIL, W 136–109 @ BKN, L 105–121 v DAL, W 123–120 @ NO).
- Miami Heat: 1 win from the last 5, average margin −7.8 points (W 129–117 @ ATL, L 109–113 v DAL, L 110–115 @ CHA, L 111–128 v DET, L 106–131 v MIN).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Miami Heat are our pick at home against the Indiana Pacers. The model gives them a 77% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
On the rosters we expect, Miami Heat rate as the stronger team (97.7 to 81.6 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Indiana Pacers have been losing by 3.1 points a game, while Miami Heat have been losing by 2.6 points a game.
Injuries: Indiana Pacers will be without Tyrese Haliburton (33 min a game), Obi Toppin (23 min a game), Ivica Zubac (22 min a game), Johnny Furphy (21 min a game) and T.J. McConnell (17 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Indiana Pacers are 3–7 and Miami Heat are 3–6.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Heat beat the Pacers 145–125 at home. Giannis Antetokounmpo led them with 31 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists, and Bam Adebayo added 27. For the Pacers, Quenton Jackson had 24 points.
What the model got right
The model gave the Heat a 77% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team-strength rating (97.7 to 81.6), and they won by 20. Tyrese Haliburton, Obi Toppin, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy and T.J. McConnell for the Pacers all missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. Quenton Jackson's 24 points for the Pacers weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team-strength rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 77%, about 2 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Fri, 30 OctCharlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards CHA 58%Orange✕ 79–95
- Fri, 30 OctNew York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers NY 58%Orange✕ 93–98
- Fri, 30 OctOrlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors TOR 69%Green✕ 121–114
- Fri, 30 OctChicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics BOS 82%Green✓ 111–125
- Fri, 30 OctDetroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets DET 75%Green✓ 110–94
- Fri, 30 OctHouston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks HOU 60%Orange✕ 111–116
- Fri, 30 OctLA Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves MIN 65%Green✓ 101–127
- Fri, 30 OctDenver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns DEN 58%Orange✓ 127–120
- Fri, 30 OctLos Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors LAL 59%Orange✕ 95–112
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.