// NBA · Friday 30 October 2026
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks prediction
Start 8:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Houston Rockets
- Chance
- 60%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Houston Rockets 111 – 116 Dallas Mavericks. Our pick, Houston Rockets, lost ✕.
Recent results
- Houston Rockets: 5 wins from the last 5, average margin +14.2 points (W 132–100 @ MIL, W 120–110 v ATL, W 121–114 @ ATL, W 114–110 @ SA, W 128–110 v DAL).
- Dallas Mavericks: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin +2.0 points (W 120–96 v OKC, W 113–109 @ MIA, L 106–122 v SA, W 121–105 @ IND, L 110–128 @ HOU).
These teams have already met 1 time this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Houston Rockets are our pick on the road against the Dallas Mavericks. The model gives them a 60% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
Dallas Mavericks rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (91.8 to 90.5 on our team-strength rating), but rest and form push the pick to Houston Rockets.
Recent form: Houston Rockets have been winning by 9.1 points a game, while Dallas Mavericks have been losing by 2.4 points a game.
Injuries: Houston Rockets will be without Alperen Sengun (34 min a game) and Reed Sheppard (23 min a game) and Dallas Mavericks will be without Santi Aldama (30 min a game) and Dereck Lively II (16 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Houston Rockets are 7–3 and Dallas Mavericks are 5–4.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Mavericks beat the Rockets 116–111 at home. Kyrie Irving led them with 35 points and 9 assists, making 5 of 8 threes, and Cooper Flagg added 33. For the Rockets, Kevin Durant had 28 points and 5 rebounds.
What the model got right
Alperen Sengun and Reed Sheppard for the Rockets, and Santi Aldama and Dereck Lively II for the Mavericks, all missed the game, as the preview expected. Our team-strength rating also had the Mavericks as the stronger side (91.8 to 90.5).
What didn't work
The model made the Rockets a slight favourite at 60%, and that was wrong: the Mavericks won by 5. The Mavericks made 12 of 33 from three; the Rockets made 7 of 29.
Why
The Mavericks already rated slightly stronger on paper, so the pick leaned on rest and form, which is a thin margin. Even at 60%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Fri, 30 OctCharlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards CHA 58%Orange✕ 79–95
- Fri, 30 OctNew York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers NY 58%Orange✕ 93–98
- Fri, 30 OctOrlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors TOR 69%Green✕ 121–114
- Fri, 30 OctChicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics BOS 82%Green✓ 111–125
- Fri, 30 OctDetroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets DET 75%Green✓ 110–94
- Fri, 30 OctIndiana Pacers @ Miami Heat MIA 77%Green✓ 125–145
- Fri, 30 OctLA Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves MIN 65%Green✓ 101–127
- Fri, 30 OctDenver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns DEN 58%Orange✓ 127–120
- Fri, 30 OctLos Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors LAL 59%Orange✕ 95–112
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.