// NBA · Monday 26 October 2026
Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets prediction
Start 10:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Denver Nuggets
- Chance
- 72%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Golden State Warriors 134 – 114 Denver Nuggets. Our pick, Denver Nuggets, lost ✕.
Recent results
- Golden State Warriors: 0 wins from the last 3, average margin −11.3 points (L 122–131 @ PHX, L 108–111 v MEM, L 105–127 @ LAL).
- Denver Nuggets: 1 win from the last 2, average margin −3.0 points (W 141–135 v NO, L 84–96 @ OKC).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Denver Nuggets are our pick at home against the Golden State Warriors. The model gives them a 72% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
On the rosters we expect, Denver Nuggets rate as the stronger team (99.7 to 93.3 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Golden State Warriors have been losing by 6.8 points a game, while Denver Nuggets have been winning by 1.7 points a game.
Injuries: Denver Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson (31 min a game) and Spencer Jones (20 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Golden State Warriors are 7–3 and Denver Nuggets are 5–3.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
Golden State won 134–114 in Denver. Yaxel Lendeborg scored 31 points with 12 rebounds, and Stephen Curry added 24 points, making all 3 of his three-point attempts. Golden State made 22 of 44 from three; Denver made 10 of 29.
What the model got right
Cameron Johnson didn't play for Denver, as the preview expected. Nikola Jokić still had 19 points, 7 rebounds and 11 assists.
What didn't work
This was our biggest miss of the night. The model made Denver a 72% favourite at home, and Golden State won by 20. They made 12 more threes than Denver and out-rebounded them 45–32.
Why
The model leaned on Denver's higher team-strength rating and better recent form. It has no way to see a night where one team shoots 50% from three, and Golden State's form coming in (losing by almost seven a game) didn't hint at it. We're keeping this result on the record, as we do every miss.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Mon, 26 OctMinnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 58%Orange✓ 125–127
- Mon, 26 OctWashington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets CHA 70%Super✓ 103–110
- Mon, 26 OctChicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics BOS 77%Green✓ 99–134
- Mon, 26 OctDallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat MIA 68%Green✕ 113–109
- Mon, 26 OctIndiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks MIL 61%Orange✓ 102–110
- Mon, 26 OctPhoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 66%Green✓ 114–125
- Mon, 26 OctAtlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets HOU 65%Orange✓ 110–120
- Mon, 26 OctMemphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz MEM 59%Orange✓ 110–105
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.