// NBA · Monday 26 October 2026
Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets prediction
Start 8:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- Houston Rockets
- Chance
- 65%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Atlanta Hawks 110 – 120 Houston Rockets. Our pick, Houston Rockets, won ✓.
Recent results
- Atlanta Hawks: 2 wins from the last 3, average margin +15.7 points (L 114–121 v HOU, W 128–81 @ CHA, W 132–125 @ ORL).
- Houston Rockets: 3 wins from the last 3, average margin +9.7 points (W 121–114 @ ATL, W 114–110 @ SA, W 128–110 v DAL).
These teams have already met 1 time this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Houston Rockets are our pick at home against the Atlanta Hawks. The model gives them a 65% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
On the rosters we expect, Houston Rockets rate as the stronger team (96.9 to 90.2 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Atlanta Hawks have been winning by 3.6 points a game, while Houston Rockets have been winning by 5.8 points a game.
Injuries: Houston Rockets will be without Marcus Smart (24 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Atlanta Hawks are 7–4 and Houston Rockets are 7–3.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Rockets beat the Hawks 120–110 at home. Alperen Sengun led them with 29 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists, and Kevin Durant added 22. For the Hawks, Jalen Johnson had 21 points and 9 rebounds.
What the model got right
The model gave the Rockets a 64% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team-strength rating (96.9 to 90.2), and they won by 10. Recent form pointed the same way: the Rockets had been winning by 5.8 points a game, the Hawks winning by 3.6. Marcus Smart missed the game for the Rockets, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. Jalen Johnson's 21 points for the Hawks weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team-strength rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 64%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Mon, 26 OctMinnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 58%Orange✓ 125–127
- Mon, 26 OctWashington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets CHA 70%Super✓ 103–110
- Mon, 26 OctChicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics BOS 77%Green✓ 99–134
- Mon, 26 OctDallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat MIA 68%Green✕ 113–109
- Mon, 26 OctIndiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks MIL 61%Orange✓ 102–110
- Mon, 26 OctPhoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 66%Green✓ 114–125
- Mon, 26 OctMemphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz MEM 59%Orange✓ 110–105
- Mon, 26 OctGolden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets DEN 72%Green✕ 134–114
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.