// NBA · Saturday 31 October 2026
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets prediction
Start 8:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- Houston Rockets
- Chance
- 57%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Oklahoma City Thunder 98 – 119 Houston Rockets. Our pick, Houston Rockets, won ✓.
Recent results
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 4 wins from the last 5, average margin +3.6 points (L 96–120 @ DAL, W 125–114 v PHX, W 108–101 v LAC, W 96–84 v DEN, W 116–104 @ SA).
- Houston Rockets: 4 wins from the last 5, average margin +9.6 points (L 111–116 @ DAL, W 132–100 @ MIL, W 120–110 v ATL, W 121–114 @ ATL, W 114–110 @ SA).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Houston Rockets are our pick at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The model gives them a 57% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
On the rosters we expect, Houston Rockets rate as the stronger team (96.2 to 82.5 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Oklahoma City Thunder have been winning by 3.9 points a game, while Houston Rockets have been winning by 7.9 points a game.
Schedule: Houston Rockets are on the second night of a back-to-back, which the model takes into account.
Injuries: Oklahoma City Thunder will be without Jalen Williams (32 min a game), Chet Holmgren (30 min a game), Alex Caruso (19 min a game) and Cason Wallace (16 min a game) and Houston Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet (31 min a game) and Reed Sheppard (23 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Oklahoma City Thunder are 8–2 and Houston Rockets are 7–3.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Rockets beat the Thunder 119–98 at home. Jabari Smith Jr. led them with 30 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists, making 6 of 12 threes, and Marcus Smart added 24. For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 26 points.
What the model got right
The model gave the Rockets a 57% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team-strength rating (96.2 to 82.5), and they won by 21. Recent form pointed the same way: the Rockets had been winning by 7.9 points a game, the Thunder winning by 3.9. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace for the Thunder, and Fred VanVleet and Reed Sheppard for the Rockets, all missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 26 points for the Thunder weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team-strength rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 57%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Sat, 31 OctPortland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz POR 60%Orange✓ 112–90
- Sat, 31 OctPhiladelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets CHA 53%Red✕ 109–104
- Sat, 31 OctAtlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Pelicans ATL 56%Orange✕ 99–121
- Sat, 31 OctCleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks CLE 64%Orange✓ 136–111
- Sat, 31 OctSacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies MEM 73%Green✓ 105–136
- Sat, 31 OctMinnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs SA 81%Green✓ 111–121
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.