// NBA · Thursday 29 October 2026
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks prediction
Start 8:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Atlanta Hawks
- Chance
- 54%
- Light
- Red
- Confidence
- Low
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Cleveland Cavaliers 111 – 114 Atlanta Hawks. Our pick, Atlanta Hawks, won ✓.
Recent results
- Cleveland Cavaliers: 3 wins from the last 4, average margin +2.0 points (W 121–111 v WSH, W 127–125 v MIN, W 125–121 v BKN, L 106–114 @ PHI).
- Atlanta Hawks: 2 wins from the last 5, average margin +5.0 points (L 117–129 v MIA, L 110–120 @ HOU, L 114–121 v HOU, W 128–81 @ CHA, W 132–125 @ ORL).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Atlanta Hawks are our pick at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The model gives them a 54% chance of winning, which makes this game close to a coin flip (under 55%).
Cleveland Cavaliers rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (92.7 to 90.4 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to Atlanta Hawks.
Recent form: Cleveland Cavaliers have been losing by 1.2 points a game, while Atlanta Hawks have been winning by 0.6 points a game.
Schedule: Cleveland Cavaliers are on the second night of a back-to-back and Atlanta Hawks are on the second night of a back-to-back, which the model takes into account.
Injuries: Cleveland Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas (20 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Cleveland Cavaliers are 5–5 and Atlanta Hawks are 7–4.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Hawks beat the Cavaliers 114–111 at home. Onyeka Okongwu led them with 29 points and 12 rebounds, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker added 25. For the Cavaliers, James Harden had 24 points and 5 rebounds.
What the model got right
The model gave the Hawks a 54% chance at home, mainly because of home court, even though the Cavaliers rated slightly stronger (92.7 to 90.4), and they won by 3. Recent form pointed the same way: the Hawks had been winning by 0.6 points a game, the Cavaliers losing by 1.2. Meleek Thomas missed the game for the Cavaliers, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Our rating had the Cavaliers slightly stronger on paper, and on the night that didn't decide it. James Harden's 24 points for the Cavaliers weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, home court. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 54% this was close to a coin flip, so it could easily have gone the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
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Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.