// NBA · Tuesday 20 October 2026
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs prediction
Start 9:50pm ET ·
- Pick
- San Antonio Spurs
- Chance
- 50%
- Light
- Red
- Confidence
- Low
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Oklahoma City Thunder 116 – 104 San Antonio Spurs. Our pick, San Antonio Spurs, lost ✕.
Recent results
- Oklahoma City Thunder: no finished games yet this season.
- San Antonio Spurs: no finished games yet this season.
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
San Antonio Spurs are our pick at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The model gives them a 50% chance of winning, which makes this game close to a coin flip (under 55%).
Oklahoma City Thunder rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (98.7 to 93.8 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to San Antonio Spurs.
Recent form: Oklahoma City Thunder have been winning by 5.5 points a game, while San Antonio Spurs have been winning by 6.2 points a game.
Injuries: San Antonio Spurs will be without Tobias Harris (31 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Oklahoma City Thunder are 8–2 and San Antonio Spurs are 8–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Thunder beat the Spurs 116–104 on the road. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led them with 32 points and 6 rebounds, and Jared McCain added 20. For the Spurs, Stephon Castle had 24 points and 7 rebounds, making 5 of 12 threes.
What the model got right
Tobias Harris missed the game for the Spurs, as the preview expected. Our team-strength rating also had the Thunder as the stronger side (98.7 to 93.8).
What didn't work
The model leaned to the Spurs at 50%, close to a coin flip, and it got this one wrong: the Thunder won by 12. The Thunder made 14 of 31 from three; the Spurs made 10 of 37.
Why
The Thunder already rated slightly stronger on paper, so the pick leaned on home court, which is a thin margin. At 50% it was close to a coin flip, so a result like this happens almost half the time. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
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Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.