// NBA · Thursday 5 November 2026
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors prediction
Start 10:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Golden State Warriors
- Chance
- 63%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Miami Heat 100 – 120 Golden State Warriors. Our pick, Golden State Warriors, won ✓.
Recent results
- Miami Heat: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin +1.6 points (W 117–116 @ LAC, L 117–138 @ LAL, W 145–125 v IND, W 129–117 @ ATL, L 109–113 v DAL).
- Golden State Warriors: 5 wins from the last 5, average margin +11.4 points (W 116–113 v PHX, W 124–112 v LAC, W 112–95 v LAL, W 119–114 @ MIN, W 134–114 @ DEN).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Golden State Warriors are our pick at home against the Miami Heat. The model gives them a 63% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
Miami Heat rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (99.4 to 96.3 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to Golden State Warriors.
Recent form: Miami Heat have been losing by 1.8 points a game, while Golden State Warriors have been winning by 0.4 points a game.
Schedule: Miami Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back, which the model takes into account.
Injuries: Golden State Warriors will be without Jimmy Butler III (31 min a game), Moses Moody (28 min a game), Kristaps Porzingis (23 min a game) and Gui Santos (20 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Miami Heat are 3–6 and Golden State Warriors are 7–3.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Warriors beat the Heat 120–100 at home. Stephen Curry led them with 29 points, making 6 of 12 threes, and Yaxel Lendeborg added 17. For the Heat, Davion Mitchell had 22 points and 8 assists.
What the model got right
The model gave the Warriors a 63% chance at home, mainly because of home court, even though the Heat rated clearly stronger (99.4 to 96.3), and they won by 20. Recent form pointed the same way: the Warriors had been winning by 0.4 points a game, the Heat losing by 1.8. Gui Santos, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis for the Warriors all missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Our rating had the Heat clearly stronger on paper, and on the night that didn't decide it. Davion Mitchell's 22 points for the Heat weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, home court. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 63%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.