Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks prediction

Recent results

• Indiana Pacers: 1 win from the last 5, average margin −8.0 points (L 102–114 v DEN, W 107–103 @ MEM, L 104–108 v ATL, L 90–98 v BKN, L 125–145 @ MIA).
• Dallas Mavericks: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin +5.0 points (W 112–100 v UTAH, L 111–112 @ SA, L 100–115 v SAC, W 116–111 v HOU, W 120–96 v OKC).

These teams have already met 1 time this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.

Preview

Dallas Mavericks are our pick at home against the Indiana Pacers. The model gives them a 61% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).

On the rosters we expect, Dallas Mavericks rate as the stronger team (91.4 to 90.3 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.

Recent form: Indiana Pacers have been losing by 5.2 points a game, while Dallas Mavericks have been losing by 1.8 points a game.

Schedule: Dallas Mavericks are on the second night of a back-to-back, which the model takes into account.

Injuries: Indiana Pacers will be without Tyrese Haliburton (33 min a game) and Johnny Furphy (21 min a game) and Dallas Mavericks will be without Dereck Lively II (16 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.

Season so far: Indiana Pacers are 3–7 and Dallas Mavericks are 5–4.

What could change the pick: late injury news. We re-check every 15 minutes until game time, then the pick is frozen and stays on our public record, win or lose.