// NBA · Wednesday 28 October 2026
Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction
Start 8:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Denver Nuggets
- Chance
- 56%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Denver Nuggets 104 – 91 New Orleans Pelicans. Our pick, Denver Nuggets, won ✓.
Recent results
- Denver Nuggets: 1 win from the last 3, average margin −8.7 points (L 114–134 v GS, W 141–135 v NO, L 84–96 @ OKC).
- New Orleans Pelicans: 0 wins from the last 3, average margin −3.3 points (L 135–141 @ DEN, L 119–120 @ UTAH, L 120–123 v IND).
These teams have already met 1 time this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Denver Nuggets are our pick on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans. The model gives them a 56% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
On the rosters we expect, Denver Nuggets rate as the stronger team (98.3 to 97.4 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Denver Nuggets have been losing by 1.2 points a game, while New Orleans Pelicans have been losing by 3.1 points a game.
Schedule: New Orleans Pelicans have had 4 days' rest to 2 for Denver Nuggets, which the model takes into account.
Injuries: Denver Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo (22 min a game) and New Orleans Pelicans will be without Yves Missi (20 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Denver Nuggets are 5–3 and New Orleans Pelicans are 4–5.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Nuggets beat the Pelicans 104–91 on the road. Jamal Murray led them with 23 points and 6 assists, making 5 of 11 threes, and Nikola Jokic added 21. For the Pelicans, Zion Williamson had 25 points and 5 rebounds.
What the model got right
The model gave the Nuggets a 56% chance on the road, mainly because of their higher team-strength rating (98.3 to 97.4), and they won by 13. Recent form pointed the same way: the Nuggets had been losing by 1.2 points a game, the Pelicans losing by 3.1. Alpha Diallo for the Nuggets, and Yves Missi for the Pelicans, both missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. Zion Williamson's 25 points for the Pelicans weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team-strength rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 56%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 28 OctWashington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 82%Super✓ 111–121
- Wed, 28 OctPhiladelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers PHI 68%Green✓ 114–109
- Wed, 28 OctMiami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks ATL 64%Super✕ 129–117
- Wed, 28 OctCharlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons DET 65%Orange✓ 89–97
- Wed, 28 OctOrlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors TOR 64%Orange✓ 99–129
- Wed, 28 OctGolden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves MIN 63%Orange✕ 119–114
- Wed, 28 OctHouston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks HOU 60%Orange✓ 132–100
- Wed, 28 OctNew York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls NY 71%Green✓ 133–127
- Wed, 28 OctSan Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz SA 76%Green✓ 117–111
- Wed, 28 OctOklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks OKC 67%Super✕ 96–120
- Wed, 28 OctLos Angeles Lakers @ LA Clippers LAC 63%Super✕ 103–87
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.