// NFL · Week 7 · Thursday 22 October 2026
New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears prediction
Kick-off 8:15pm ET ·
- Pick
- New England Patriots
- Chance
- 51%
- Light
- Red
- Confidence
- Low
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: New England Patriots 24 – 30 Chicago Bears. Our pick, New England Patriots, lost ✕.
Our pre-game preview
New England Patriots are our pick on the road against the Chicago Bears in Week 7. The model gives them a 51% chance of winning, which makes this game close to a coin flip (under 55%).
New England Patriots have the higher team rating (1636 to 1564), built from results and winning margins.
Quarterbacks: we expect Drake Maye to start for New England Patriots (38 career starts); we expect Caleb Williams to start for Chicago Bears (39 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: New England Patriots are 5–3 and Chicago Bears are 6–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Bears beat the Patriots 30–24 at home. Caleb Williams completed 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards with 2 touchdowns, and D'Andre Swift ran for 78 yards on 22 carries and scored once. For the Patriots, Drake Maye completed 24 of 31 passes for 321 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.
What the model got right
Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Drake Maye for the Patriots and Caleb Williams for the Bears. The model called this close to a coin flip, and it was a one-score game: 6 points at the end.
What didn't work
The model leaned to the Patriots at 51%, close to a coin flip, and it got this one wrong: the Bears won by 6. Our team rating had the Patriots ahead (1636 to 1564), and that didn't hold up.
Why
The pick rested mostly on our team rating, which is built from past results and can't see how a single game will go. At 51% it was close to a coin flip, so a result like this happens almost half the time. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.