// NBA · Thursday 22 October 2026
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction
Start 9:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Chance
- 65%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Denver Nuggets 84 – 96 Oklahoma City Thunder. Our pick, Oklahoma City Thunder, won ✓.
Recent results
- Denver Nuggets: no finished games yet this season.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 1 win from the last 1, average margin +12.0 points (W 116–104 @ SA).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Oklahoma City Thunder are our pick at home against the Denver Nuggets. The model gives them a 65% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
Denver Nuggets rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (104.4 to 98.0 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to Oklahoma City Thunder.
Recent form: Denver Nuggets have been winning by 3.1 points a game, while Oklahoma City Thunder have been winning by 6.7 points a game.
Schedule: Denver Nuggets have had 7 days' rest to 2 for Oklahoma City Thunder, which the model takes into account.
Injuries: Denver Nuggets will be without Spencer Jones (20 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Denver Nuggets are 5–3 and Oklahoma City Thunder are 8–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Thunder beat the Nuggets 96–84 at home. Jalen Williams led them with 21 points and 5 rebounds, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 17. For the Nuggets, Aaron Gordon had 20 points and 6 rebounds.
What the model got right
The model gave the Thunder a 65% chance at home, mainly because of home court, even though the Nuggets rated slightly stronger (104.4 to 98.0), and they won by 12. Recent form pointed the same way: the Thunder had been winning by 6.7 points a game, the Nuggets winning by 3.1. Spencer Jones missed the game for the Nuggets, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Our rating had the Nuggets slightly stronger on paper, and on the night that didn't decide it. The Nuggets won the rebounding battle 53–46 and still lost.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, home court. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 65%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
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Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.